Traders and speculators in the stock market should be raising cash "literally today"; Gundlach forecasts a lower stock prices this summer. Long-term investors, however, should be able to weather a pullback in stocks. The low volatility environment should not be seen as a "new paradigm" for the market.
As usual, the photo on the title slide means something. DoubleLine Funds The idea here, Gundlach said, is that like the sunset, the regime people are taking for granted — that we are forever in a quantitative-easing and negative-interest-rate world — is getting very old.
The proportion of global GDP governed by central banks with negative interest rates has recently exploded. DoubleLine Funds Gundlach says negative rates are not doing their job.
But for all the "crazy experiments" from central banks, it's interesting that global GDP has been either very stable or steadily declining in recent years, he said.
Nominal GDP is at a low level that's usually associated with recessions. Forecasts are now for lower growth compared to any time since In this scenario, the Fed is "stuck in a situation of tightening. Because it's lower than the Fed's projections, it seems to be holding the Fed hostage.
This chart is "pretty horrifying.
Gundlach is slamming negative interest rates again. One of these days, the evidence is going to overwhelmingly show that negative rates don't help, he said.
It's "the triumph of hope over experience, just like a second marriage. That's a pretty wide net to use to forecast, he said.
This is the necessary early warning sign of a recession. DoubleLine Funds There's never been a recession with the unemployment rate below its month average.
One uptick would make a recession possible, Gundlach said. This is an almost perfect predictor, but it isn't even close. DoubleLine Funds This shows that the quarterly moving average is much higher than the unemployment rate.
Most of them were wrong. DoubleLine Funds However, this isn't the start of a huge trend, Gundlach said. That's partly because shelter and rent still contribute to most of the core consumer price index. And that has deflationary consequences, as people reduce spending in other areas to take care of the necessity.
The bond market seems to be sniffing out that there's a longer-term secular shift towards inflation. He hasn't sold any this year. Pension plans are underfunded. And so, bonds are now in excess of stocks in pension funds.
DoubleLine Funds This seems like a "mass psychosis" given that interest rates are so low. Everyone is talking about it, especially the presidential candidates.Then-Director of National Intelligence James Clapper (right) talks with President Barack Obama in the Oval Office, with John Brennan and other national security aides present.
Follow Business Insider: The dollar is overdue for a rally, even after many investors inaccurately believed that it would rise because the Fed was raising rates. Gundlach says his Ira Sohn Conference trade recommendation is winning. DoubleLine Funds.
Jeff Gundlach says to short Facebook in his new pair trade idea. During his presentation, Gundlach said, “As the next recession approaches, commodities should have a big gain. May 08, · MarketWatch live blogged the 22nd Annual Sohn Investment Conference, an annual event that raises money for pediatric cancer research and brings together top hedge fund titans who deliver their top investment ideas in a rapid-fire series of often market-moving presentations.
Sep 08, · DoubleLine Funds CEO Jeff Gundlach says it's time to be defensive on bonds. On Thursday, Gundlach gave his quarterly webcast on markets and the economy titled "Turning Points." He believes that interest rates have bottomed. And while he declined to give a .
Sep 08, · Follow Business Insider: CEO and CIO of DoubleLine Capital Jeffrey Gundlach REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz DoubleLine Funds CEO Jeff Gundlach says it's .